Americans everywhere are feeling the sting of rising gasoline, which has surged to over $4 per gallon as the invasion of Ukraine led to a new all-time high for the cost of gas. These prices are expected to remain elevated, possibly all summer or at least until the supply of oil catches up with demand.
Western countries have been avoiding Russian oil purchases due to the conflict in Eastern Europe, which, along with growing post-pandemic demand, has choked the global supply of crude oil. Regular-grade gas prices have jumped by more than $1 per gallon since 2021, on average. However, it’s worth noting that while gas prices are steadily climbing, these figures do not account for inflation. In terms of the actual cost to the consumer, current prices are similar to what they were in the 2010s when retail gas prices last reached $4 per gallon. Over the years, fuel efficiency for passenger vehicles has also increased by a few miles per gallon, so that might also mitigate some of the cost, too. The U.S. imports 8% of its oil from Russia and is much less dependent on Russian oil. However, even with less direct exposure to Russian oil exports, Americans are still feeling the pinch.
“The problem is that oil has been and remains a global market,” says Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for Gas Buddy. “When oil is getting choked off — a kink in the hose, so to speak — that impacts everyone that consumes oil, as well as the price.” And gas prices tend to be more volatile than other commodities, as they’re particularly sensitive to fluctuations in supply and demand.
As President Biden and congressional Democrats decided to ban Russian oil and gas imports, they embraced a politically risky strategy that would drive up already-rising fuel prices while seeking to pin the blame for Americans’ pain on Vladimir Putin. In a speech announcing the ban, Biden acknowledged it would probably result in more expensive gas for consumers in the United States. To many, this seems to be a potentially perilous admission for a president who has been fending off Republican attacks over the rising cost of groceries, rent, and other items. Biden frequently named the Russian president as he explained his decision. “Putin’s war is already hurting American families at the gas pump,” he said. “Since Putin began his military buildup on Ukrainian borders — just since then — the price of the gas at the pump in America went up 75 cents. And with this action, it’s going to go up further. I’m going to do everything I can to minimize Putin’s price hike here at home.”
Many Republicans also embraced the ban on Russian oil, which the White House hoped would make it harder for them to attack Biden. But GOP leaders quickly noted that gas prices were climbing even before Russia invaded Ukraine, and they blamed Biden’s limits on domestic oil production for exacerbating the shortfall. “Don’t be fooled,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said. “This was more than a year in the making.”
Republicans have also opened up new lines of attack over the Biden administration but it is inflation that is emerging as a central focus of both parties. “The good news is we now have a very specific reason for rising gas prices and a specific villain,” said Celinda Lake, who served as one of Biden’s top campaign pollsters in 2020.“Before, it was kind of ambiguous: What’s going on? Why are gas prices going up?” Lake added that Putin is “a villain that we agree on and the Republicans are divided on,” alluding to divisions in the GOP between some, like former president Donald Trump, who has praised Putin while others, like McConnell, who have been critical of the Russian leader.
There is no easy way to counter the Republican attacks. Part of the challenge, some Democrats said, is that presidents have far less power to sway gas prices than many voters think.
“Historically, people automatically blame presidents for gas prices,” said Sen. Angus King, who aligns with Democrats, but “rarely have I seen them give presidents credit when they come down.” Prices on a variety of goods have climbed steeper in recent months than they have in decades, largely because of the economy’s rapid recovery from its pandemic-induced struggles.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted Biden and the Democratic bet, for the moment, is that Americans will be willing to tolerate those costs, particularly when showing the atrocities of the war in sometimes graphic detail. Seventy-one percent of Americans say they support banning Russian oil even if it means higher gas prices, according to a Quinnipiac University survey. That included majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents. The White House sought to capitalize on that sentiment, and sought support for “cutting off the strength of Putin’s economy and war machine: energy.” The question for Democrats is whether Americans’ emotional support for Ukrainians would continue to outweigh an ongoing rise in gas prices, especially if the war — and inflation — drag on.
For now, Republicans in Congress are largely aligned with Democrats on the Russian oil and gas ban. “I strongly support America stopping purchasing Putin’s oil,” McConnell said on Twitter. They said it was morally untenable for the United States to continue putting dollars directly into Putin’s war machine by buying Russian oil. While Russian oil accounts for only a small portion of U.S. imports, it represents a much bigger share of European purchases. The European Commission on Tuesday unveiled a plan to cut Russian gas imports by about two-thirds. Together, the actions of the United States and its European allies could jolt the markets at an already tumultuous moment.
However, Biden has forewarned Americans stating that the Russian oil ban, “… is a step that we’re taking to inflict further pain on Putin, but there will be costs as well here in the United States.”
